By Ricardo J. Delpiano
The morning live Peru elections that were considered key for its future. Of the candidates standing, there are four that focus the most attention: former President Alejandro Toledo, Keiko Fujimori (daughter of former President), economist Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (former Minister of Toledo) and the popular ultra-nationalist Ollanta Humala who until now leading the polls, may get a majority.
According to the latest polls published at the end of the campaign in Peru, Humala has the 32% of preferences, followed by Keiko with 22% to 17% Kuczynski, Toledo with 15% and finally Luis Castañeda (source Datum). Within hours of the election is clear that none of them get the necessary votes to be elected in the first round so the race will be defined in the runoff, about two months later, which finally will know who the new President of Peru and what the future of the Andean country.
morning The Peru faces a crucial election for your future as a country, where the center of conflict is the threat that Ollanta Humala get to come to power and launched his ultra-nationalist project. Aviation is one of the areas threatened by the popular candidate. Photo: RPP
This is precisely the main focus of this election, where the country is played by a continuity in the institutional (partly recovered after the fall of Alberto Fujimori) and a deepening of the economic model that has allowed the country's growth significantly in recent years, or a shift to a policy marked by a deep populism-nationalism that threatens everything achieved above.
is that just because of the possibility that a candidate like Humala comes to power, concerns not only the political class but to the hundreds of economic interests that exist in Peru today, his ideas relating to those of Hugo Chavez, popular nationalist feelings (including anti-Chilean) and willingness to carry out institutional reforms are the main sources of uncertainty. Since the publication of the first survey that gave the possibility that Humala is elected, the Lima Stock Exchange has had a downward trend, reflecting the fear that exists in the investment world with the arrival of this candidate to power.
Chile in the last fifteen years has become a strategic partner of Peru and is today one of the key partners of its economy. The Andean country is the second favorite destination for Chilean investments abroad. Companies such as LAN, Falabella, Parque Arauco, Cencosud are just some of them and now their interests are in uncertainty before the arrival of Humala and where biggest fear is a change in the rules of the game.
Commercial aviation has not been outside the Ollanta factor and is also one of the areas threatened by the nationalist candidate.
Humala is one that supports the thinking of some sectors in Peru, seeking "to recover the sovereignty of aviation", echoing the sentiments of reviving AeroPeru emblematic airlines or Faucett, ancient symbols of aviation Peru. has planted the legal review of Civil Aviation, which is described in some quarters as the "gateway" to TACA airlines such as LAN or have entered the Peruvian aviation market. It has also indicated its intention to review the airport concession contracts Jorge Chavez, today awarded Lima Airport Partners (whose company participates Fraport AG-Frankfurt Airport-).
A note from the newspaper "El Comercio de Lima (one of the most influential), published in this regard that air transport, a new government of Ollanta Humala would create a" flag carrier "(something Conviasa similar projects such as Venezuela, Bolivia BoA), a review of the operating licenses for airlines (LAN and TACA in the center), a change and renegotiation in concession contracts for airports, which seeks increase participation and management State. (26/03/2011)
Peruvian air market today consists of four airlines: LAN (via LAN Peru), Avianca-TACA Airlines Star Peru and Peruvian. The first two (LAN and Avianca-TACA) dominate the international market. Both have an important hub in Lima from where they operate virtually all of Latin America, constituting the main tool of Peru air link. Star Peru clearly concentrated in the domestic market is a key player and the second in the country after LAN Peru. In recent years there has been a significant development incorporating material (BAe146) that has led to increased routes and frequencies different destinations around the country. In last place is Peruvian Airlines, a particular airline recently created under the concept of having "a Peruvian flag carrier", calling for it to strong Peruvian identity.
Ollanta In reaching the presidency and bring their ideas to turn, would mean a major setback for the Peruvian commercial aviation, which has been reflected, and driven a lot of development that Peru has had on recent years. Of participating airlines, the threats are stronger for Avianca, TACA and LAN, the latter being most affected since they come from Chile, which is not accepted by ultra-nationalist sectors of Peru.
LAN While not said about the process her Peru and especially the factor "Ollanta" is natural that they are mulling different scenarios in the event of a change in the scenario in that country but for now its more immediate action is limited to await the outcome of the election.
In recent days, Ollanta Humala has moderated his revolutionary proposals and decreased the nationalist tone of his language, a natural process in the face of election to get closer to the political center and recruit the most votes. In this line, has also said that was not in favor of Chavez and that is not "anti-Chilean." The second round will force candidates to focus on the political center, which will mean an easing of the moderate proposals, whether Humala as the candidate to pass a second round, who shall meet in their project to the rest of applicants. In the event that the winner is finally Ollanta, an option that will make a stop to their proposals is that they have the majority in Congress, action which may be the hope for many in his government eventually.
Just hours after the election, Peru is facing a key moment: follow a path that has led to progress towards further development (though with major flaws) or opt for another alternative which means a full circle all that the country has achieved in recent years. In that scenario, he stressed that the ruling party and Alan Garcia himself has not been able to place a successor, reflecting the strong personal character of the last government.
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